Million-dollar Bitcoin by 2030: experts weigh in on six driving factors

Enthusiasm around Bitcoin’s potential continues to build, with some experts predicting it could reach $1,000,000 by 2030. Several factors are cited as drivers of this potential surge.

Retail adoption is on the rise. The number of Bitcoin wallets holding at least $100 has neared record highs, increasing by 25% in a single year, from approximately 24 million in January 2024 to nearly 30 million in 2025.

Bitcoin miners are also increasingly active, contributing to network security. The Bitcoin mining hashrate exceeded 1,000 exahashes per second (EH/s) in August 2025, representing a 50% increase from the previous year and indicating unprecedented levels of network security.

Notably, governments worldwide are beginning to recognize Bitcoin as a strategic asset. The United States government holds a substantial amount of BTC (190,000 $BTC), and the U.S. President has signed an executive order designating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Furthermore, legislation is expected to be introduced that would lead the U.S. to acquire 1,000,000 BTC over the next five years, solidifying its position as a unique store of value in the global financial system.

This shift has significant implications for both global demand and the limited supply of Bitcoin. While there are theoretically 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist, an estimated 2-4 million are assumed to be permanently lost, including the holdings of Bitcoin’s pseudonymous founder, Satoshi Nakamoto. Additionally, long-term holders, who account for approximately 80% of the coins, are unwilling to sell at current prices and have not moved their coins in many years.

This leaves only a few million Bitcoin available for purchase by new and existing investors and users, which is reflected in exchange liquidity. Approximately 2 million BTC are held on exchanges and available for spot trading, primarily serving retail demand. Over-the-counter (OTC) desks, which cater to institutional flows, are experiencing unprecedented demand pressure. New whales, defined as wallets holding 1,000+ BTC with coins aged under six months, have doubled their holdings to 1.1 million BTC since March 2025. This surge of 600K BTC, representing a substantial investment, indicates intensified capital inflows, largely from institutional investors.

The situation is further compounded by the limited new supply entering the market. The April 2024 Bitcoin halving reduced new supply issuance to approximately 900 BTC per day, and this will halve again in 2028 to just 450 Bitcoin per day. This translates to roughly 164,000 new Bitcoin annually, which may not be sufficient to meet the demand of even one major institutional buyer.

For example, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, launched in January 2024, now holds almost 740,000 BTC, acquiring an average of 1,287 BTC per day, which is already more than the newly mined coins. Strategy’s acquisitions add to this pressure, with another ~440,000 acquired over the same period, or 763 per day. These supply and liquidity constraints create a perfect storm for surging demand to drive the price of Bitcoin upward.

The ״orange pill״ effect has reached governments and sophisticated investors who now recognize Bitcoin’s role as digital gold and a true competitor to fiat money. However, even if every millionaire in the world wanted to hold just 1 Bitcoin, it would be mathematically impossible. With approximately 56 million millionaires globally and only 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist, the supply-demand imbalance is evident. This imbalance is further exacerbated by the simultaneous demand from governments, corporations, small & medium businesses, and retail investors, all seeking to hold BTC on their balance sheets and hedge against the existing monetary system.

The U.S. government’s potential acquisition of 1 million Bitcoins, as proposed by the BITCOIN Act, would send a clear signal to other governments that Bitcoin is now a strategic national asset. This could lead to a global race to acquire Bitcoin, potentially causing fiat currency debasement.

El Salvador, for instance, holds over 6102 BTC in its reserves, and similar movements are being observed across multiple nations and U.S. states. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund holds a stake of more than $680 million via ETFs, and China holds over 190,000 BTC as well.

The stablecoin market also represents a significant demand driver for Bitcoin. Analysts project that the stablecoin market could grow to $3.7 trillion by 2030, representing a complete transformation of digital money flows. As stablecoins become the rails for international commerce, trade settlement, and institutional treasury management, they create constant buying pressure for Bitcoin.

Corporate treasury companies, modeled on Strategy, are issuing equity and debt to buy Bitcoin, creating a positive feedback loop where corporate success with Bitcoin strategies encourages more companies to adopt similar approaches, further reducing Bitcoin’s available supply.

Finally, the potential for pension fund adoption represents a significant demand catalyst. With U.S. pension funds managing an estimated $40 trillion, even a small allocation to Bitcoin could result in substantial new demand.

The current geopolitical landscape, marked by instability and eroding trust in government institutions, further strengthens Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, decentralized store of value.

In summary, the convergence of limited supply, government demand, institutional demand, corporate demand, stablecoin demand, and geopolitical demand is creating unprecedented conditions for Bitcoin. This confluence of factors suggests that $1,000,000 Bitcoin by 2030 is not only possible but potentially probable. The key question is whether individuals and institutions will secure their positions before the supply becomes increasingly scarce.