Bitcoin stalls at new resistance: three forces keeping prices capped
Bitcoin’s rally has lost steam. A wave of selling from long-term holders, persistent U.S. dollar strength, and a rotation into privacy-focused cryptocurrencies are combining to keep BTC pinned below key levels.
Since early November, Bitcoin has struggled to hold above 106,000, even as the S&P 500 sits just 1% shy of a record high. Gold has recovered as well, now trading about 4% below its prior peak near 4,380. That divergence has traders asking whether crypto-specific pressures are preventing Bitcoin from making another run at 112,000.
A stronger dollar is a headwind for BTC
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been strengthening against major currencies, signaling renewed confidence in the Treasury’s ability to navigate fiscal challenges. Bitcoin has long shown an inverse relationship with the dollar: when the DXY rises, BTC often struggles. Meanwhile, equities can benefit from lower rates and a firm dollar through cheaper imports and improved valuations, leaving crypto comparatively out of favor.
The corporate buyer bid has faded
Public companies that hold Bitcoin—such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet (MTPLF)—have historically added to their stacks when their shares traded at a premium to the value of their BTC holdings, a dynamic often reflected in the mNAV multiple. With Bitcoin off its highs, that premium has largely disappeared. Issuing new shares now would likely dilute existing holders without the benefit of a market-adjusted NAV uplift, removing a key incentive to buy more BTC. Alternative financing via debt or convertibles remains possible, but lenders typically demand collateral, effectively reducing the amount of Bitcoin reflected in enterprise value and capping potential mNAV expansion.
Long-term holders are selling into weakness
A 20% slide from the all-time high of 126,220 has coincided with long-dormant wallets moving coins to exchanges. One high-profile case involves an early arbitrage trader linked to the Mt. Gox era, who reportedly controls over 1 billion in BTC and recently transferred more than 1,800 BTC—over 200 million—to Kraken. While old addresses do move occasionally, these transfers have rattled sentiment, especially amid rising debate over long-term security (including quantum resilience) and sharp gains in privacy coins.
Rotation to privacy-focused tokens underscores the pressure
Capital is flowing toward privacy assets: Zcash is up 99% over the past month, Decred 74%, Dash 37%, and Monero 22%. Even with 524 million in net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday, overall buyer enthusiasm remains subdued as attention shifts elsewhere.
The bottom line
Selling by long-term holders, a firm U.S. dollar, and a rotation into privacy tokens are collectively capping Bitcoin’s recovery. With prices still under 106,000 and these headwinds intact, the odds of a swift push back to 112,000 appear limited in the near term.
