Gemini reportedly preparing to launch prediction markets
Gemini is reportedly planning to expand into prediction markets, in what could be one of the company’s most significant moves since its public debut in September, according to a Bloomberg report.
People familiar with the matter said Gemini Space Station Inc. has filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for approval to operate a derivatives exchange. The filing could pave the way for Gemini to offer event contracts, financial products that allow traders to bet on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, sports, or economic data releases.
Sources told Bloomberg that the company is aiming to launch the product “as soon as possible.” If approved, Gemini would join a growing list of crypto and fintech firms — including Coinbase and MetaMask — that have recently moved into the prediction market space.
The development comes shortly after Gemini’s co-founders, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, took the company public in an upsized $433 million IPO, valuing the exchange at $4.4 billion.
Prediction market volumes surge
The timing of Gemini’s push coincides with a boom in the prediction market industry. Kalshi, a regulated predictions platform, has been posting record trading volumes nearly every week since mid-October. Between Oct. 27th and Nov. 2nd alone, Kalshi reported $1.2 billion in trading activity, surpassing the previous week’s record of $1.01 billion.
Kalshi’s main rival, Polymarket, has also crossed the $1 billion mark in weekly trading volume, underscoring the sector’s rapid growth and rising retail interest.
Major players enter the space
Gemini’s expansion places it among a growing number of major platforms exploring or integrating prediction markets. MetaMask, Coinbase, DraftKings, and Worldcoin — the identity-focused project led by Sam Altman — have all rolled out or announced similar initiatives in recent months.
Institutional investors are also taking notice. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, recently invested $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing it at around $9 billion. Meanwhile, Kalshi has also achieved a multibillion-dollar valuation, cementing prediction markets as one of crypto’s fastest-growing sectors.
